Weekly Outlook — Week of 2026-09-28

The melt-up broadened: SPY (95% of its 52-week range) and QQQ (98%, a hair under its record) are both back in uptrends, MSFT delivered the freshest breakout on the list — out of a five-week box on full alignment — and the semi leaders kept going vertical, with AMD +35% and INTC +37% over the month and META +30% to new 52-week highs. On the longer-term composite score — the slower 4h-to-monthly momentum composite on a −10 (most bearish) to +10 (most bullish) scale, distinct from the faster short-term Avg Score on the dashboard — AMD (+7.75) and MSFT (+7.5) lead, with MU (+6.6), INTC (+6.6), QQQ (+6.4) and META (+6.4) stacked right behind. Two things temper the euphoria: the live shorts are real (SLV, GLD and AVGO all carry downside breakout attempts, and IWM keeps bleeding as the rate-hike casualty), and the leaders are stretched — AMD and META closed above their weekly upper bands, territory where first pullbacks come fast. The fulcrum of the week is Micron's fiscal Q4 on Wednesday after the close: MU, SNDK and the whole AMD complex trade as one bet into and out of that print, with Friday's jobs report as the macro chaser. 13 of 24 names are BULLISH, 8 RANGE, 3 BEARISH.

• MU — ⚠️ earnings Wednesday, Sep 30 (after close): +16% into the print at $1,082 with full bull alignment (+6.6 composite) — everything this week is positioning; $1,108.72 is the pre-print ceiling, $1,042 the shelf, and the read is provisional until the gap. SNDK and AMD trade in sympathy.

• MSFT — the cleanest fresh signal on the list: +7.5 composite, broke out of its five-week $478–518 box and closed above the daily upper band at $516.17 — a coiled breakout, not a stretched one; $509–510 (the old box top) is the retest level that has to hold.

• AMD — +35% in a month, above its weekly upper band: the strongest composite (+7.75) at 98% of its 52-week range with the record at $639 one good day away — but weekly-band extension like this is where sharp air-pockets live; dips toward $590 (daily EMA9) are the entries, and Wednesday's MU print is its biggest single risk.

• QQQ / SPY — records overhead, trend underneath: QQQ closed $744.50 against its $748 record and SPY sits ~1% under $779.37; both are buy-the-dip regimes (QQQ $733.45, SPY $767.30 EMA9 shelves) unless Wednesday/Friday break them.

• The live shorts — metals and AVGO: GLD (−3.25) and SLV (−2.5) both carry downside breakout attempts below their EMA stacks, and AVGO (−3.0) is the one semi still making lower lows — it needs to reclaim $362 before it's anything but a fade.

• META — parabolic but earned: +30% in a month to a new 52-week high at $779.82, closed above its weekly upper band — same discipline as AMD: chase nothing, the first test of $720 (daily EMA9) is the entry.

• Macro frame: MU Wednesday night, quarter-end Wednesday, then September payrolls Friday morning (consensus ~+100K) — the two binaries bracket the week; IWM at its weekly lower band is the tell for how the rate side lands.