Weekly Outlook — Week of 2026-08-03

The watchlist enters the week split three ways: 2 names bullish, 4 bearish, and 13 in range — a post-earnings tape where the near-term momentum, not the slow trend, is the tradeable read. The live longs are the two breakout leaders, MSFT and AMZN, which sit at the top of the longer-term composite score (the slower 4h-to-monthly composite, scaled −10 most-bearish to +10 most-bullish — distinct from the faster short-term Avg Score on the dashboard): MSFT +6.5 and AMZN +5.9, both with near-term momentum ripping — but both are extended above their upper bands, so they're buy-the-dip names, not chases. The live shorts are META (−6.3), TSLA (−5.5) and IBIT (−5.5), all with the multi-week trend and near-term momentum pointing down — though TSLA has already pierced its weekly lower band, where shorts stop being pressed. The middle of the book is the entire semi/featured complex (NVDA, AVGO, AMD, MU, ARM, SNDK, INTC, plus QQQ): hard July pullbacks inside longer-term uptrends, now sitting at or near their major support shelves with near-term momentum trying to turn — two-sided until the levels resolve, with AMD and SNDK earnings midweek as the binary catalysts. Sunday-night futures are firmly risk-on (S&P +0.5%, Nasdaq-100 +0.8%, Dow +200 on easing geopolitical risk, oil lower), tilting Monday's open toward the upside tests — SPY into the top of its box, QQQ at its $700 reclaim, and the oversold semi shelves bouncing — but a gap-up into resistance is a level test, not a confirmation: the reclaim has to hold past the open.

• MSFT — the breakout leader: +20% in a month and above both its daily ($439.40) and weekly ($456.12) upper bands; extended, so the edge is the first dip to $439–441, not the chase; composite +6.5.

• AMZN — same setup, later stage: gap-and-run to 92% of its 52-week range with $273.23 / $278.56 (52-week high) overhead; the dip-buy zone is the $263.70 band re-entry; composite +5.9.

• AMD — ⚠️ reports Tuesday Aug 4 (after close): a binary event for the whole semi complex; pre-earnings structure is a bounce off $446.87 support with $488.60 / $505.25 capping — the read is provisional into the print.

• SNDK — ⚠️ reports Wednesday Aug 5 (after close): halved from $1,952.59 to $998.19 in a month and only partially bounced; $998–1,022 is the floor that must hold, $1,258–1,307 the lid; expect a gap either way.

• META — the cleanest short, but late: composite −6.3 with every timeframe pointing down; below $546.08 the washout zone at $521.54–524.49 (weekly lower band + July low) is where the down-move exhausts — take-profit territory, not fresh-short territory.

• TSLA — don't press it: closed below its weekly lower band ($317.94) after defending $297.38 — the deepest oversold on the book; a snap-back toward $318–325 is the higher-probability near-term move even though the trend is down.